Scientific Methodology

Blast Effect Calculations

The simulator uses scientifically validated scaling-law formulas derived from nuclear weapons testing data and the seminal work The Effects of Nuclear Weapons by Glasstone & Dolan (3rd edition, 1977). All formulas express radius as a function of weapon yield in kilotons.

Fireball Radius

Radius (km) = 0.28 × Yield^0.33

The fireball vaporizes everything within this radius. Temperatures exceed 10 million°C — hotter than the surface of the Sun.

Air Blast Zones

20 PSI (Severe): 0.28 × Yield^0.33 km — reinforced concrete buildings destroyed.
5 PSI (Moderate): 1.03 × Yield^0.33 km — most residential buildings collapse.
1 PSI (Light): 2.93 × Yield^0.33 km — windows shatter, debris injuries.

Thermal Radiation

3rd Degree Burns: 0.67 × Yield^0.41 km — severe burns requiring immediate medical care.
2nd Degree Burns: 1.2 × Yield^0.41 km — painful burns, potential scarring.

Casualty Estimates

Casualties are calculated by combining each zone's area, the local population density at the detonation point, and an empirically-derived mortality rate per zone:

Zone	Mortality Rate
Fireball	100%
20 PSI overpressure	98%
5 PSI overpressure	50%
1 PSI overpressure	5%
3rd-degree thermal burns	95%
2nd-degree thermal burns	20%
Fallout (24–48h)	30%

Data Sources

Glasstone, S., & Dolan, P. J. (1977). The Effects of Nuclear Weapons (3rd ed.).
Federation of American Scientists — Nuclear Weapons Effects Calculator.
NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein — validation data.
Defense Threat Reduction Agency publications.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory — Nuclear Weapons FAQ.

See the full data sources page for complete references and citation links.

Important Disclaimers

The simulator provides estimates based on idealized conditions. Actual effects would vary based on:

Terrain and geographic features
Weather conditions and atmospheric density
Building construction standards
Time of day (population distribution)
Altitude of detonation (air burst vs. surface burst)
Emergency response capabilities