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Does Iran Have Nukes?

Where Iran’s nuclear program stands in 2026: what the IAEA can verify, what it cannot, and a dated record of the events that got here. Every figure is attributed.

By Marko Visic, BSc Physics

No. As of early 2026, neither FAS nor SIPRI counts Iran among the world’s nuclear-armed states.[1, 2] The IAEA’s last stockpile estimate, from 13 June 2025, was 440.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 60%; since the June 2025 attacks the Agency says it cannot state the stockpile’s current size, composition or location.[3]

What the assessments say

  • Iran is not among SIPRI's nine nuclear-armed states[4]
  • Iran is not among the nine countries in FAS's 2026 table[1]
  • 'Iran is not building a nuclear weapon' (2025 public US intelligence assessment, as quoted by CRS)[5]
  • status of the program unclear[5]

What the IAEA knows and doesn’t

stockpile total enriched
9874.9 kg (enriched uranium, total)[3]
stockpile up to 60pct
440.9 kg (uranium enriched up to 60% U-235)[3]
stockpile up to 60pct verified
432.9 of 440.9 kg[3]
stockpile up to 20pct
184.1 kg (uranium enriched up to 20% U-235)[3]
stockpile up to 5pct
6024.4 kg (uranium enriched up to 5% U-235)[3]
stockpile current whereabouts
unknown to the IAEA[3]
continuity of knowledge
lost for more than a year (since the June 2025 attacks)[6]
safeguards unable
IAEA unable to discharge its NPT safeguards responsibilities in Iran[6]
dg concern
'serious proliferation concern'[6]
access affected facilities
no IAEA access to facilities affected by the June 2025 attacks[3]
ifep
fourth declared enrichment facility (IFEP, Isfahan) never accessed; location unknown to the Agency[3]

Timeline, June 2025 to 2026

  1. Israeli military operation from 13 June 2025 included attacks on several nuclear facilities[3]
  2. 22 June 2025: US attacks on three nuclear facilities[3]
  3. Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan hit[7]
  4. no increase in off-site radiation levels (per Iranian regulator, reported to IAEA)[7]
  5. 2 July 2025: law suspending cooperation with the IAEA signed into force[3]
  6. 28 Aug 2025: France, Germany, UK notified the Security Council (snapback)[8]
  7. 9 Sep 2025: IAEA-Iran understanding ('Cairo agreement')[9]
  8. 26 Sep 2025: draft to extend relief rejected, 9 against / 4 in favour / 2 abstentions[10]
  9. measures to enter into effect on the evening of 27 Sep 2025 (US representative)[10]
  10. Iran: snapback 'legally baseless'[9]
  11. Iran letter of 20 Nov 2025: agreement 'no longer valid'[3]
  12. 28 Feb 2026: US and Israel launched further attacks, including on sites of some nuclear facilities[3]
  13. entrance buildings of Natanz FEP damaged (satellite imagery, 3 Mar 2026)[13]
  14. Iran informed IAEA of attacks on the Bushehr NPP site (several dates, Mar-Apr 2026)[13]
  15. Khondab heavy water production plant attacked 27 Mar 2026 (not a nuclear facility per IAEA)[13]
  16. conditional ceasefire declared 8 April 2026[14]
  17. one inspection and DIV at Bushehr NPP, 1–3 June 2026[13]
  18. June 2026 US-Iran MOU: 'Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons'[5]
  19. Board resolution GOV/2026/61 adopted 9 Sep 2026[15]

Treaty status

NPT
party; signed 1968-07-01; ratified 1970-02-02; in force 1970-03-05[11]
CTBT
signed 1996-09-24; not ratified[12]

Frequently asked questions

Does Iran have nuclear weapons?

No. As of early 2026, neither the Federation of American Scientists nor SIPRI counts Iran among the world’s nuclear-armed states.[1]

How much enriched uranium does Iran have?

The IAEA’s most recent estimate, as of 13 June 2025, was 440.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235. The Agency says it cannot confirm the stockpile’s current size, composition or location.[3]

Is Iran in the Non-Proliferation Treaty?

Yes. On the NPT, Iran is: party; signed 1968-07-01; ratified 1970-02-02; in force 1970-03-05. On the CTBT: signed 1996-09-24; not ratified.[11]

Can the IAEA verify what Iran is doing now?

Not fully. The IAEA reports that its continuity of knowledge was lost for more than a year (since the June 2025 attacks), and that it is IAEA unable to discharge its NPT safeguards responsibilities in Iran.[6]

Every figure on this page comes from a verified primary source, cited inline and listed below. Warhead counts are the Federation of American Scientists’ Status of World Nuclear Forces and SIPRI’s Yearbook; delivery systems come from the Nuclear Notebook; blast radii are calculated from Glasstone & Dolan scaling laws. Candidate and unverified figures are withheld.

Data as of 22 October 2026. By Marko Visic, BSc Physics.

Sources

  1. 1.Source: Federation of American Scientists (Kristensen, Korda, Johns, Knight-Boyle, Kohn), Status of World Nuclear Forces (2026 estimates; page updated 9 Jun 2026) — retrieved Oct 2026
  2. 2.Source: SIPRI (Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda), SIPRI Yearbook 2026, ch. 8: World nuclear forces (Appendix 8A, Tables 8A.1, 8A.4, 8A.5; January 2026) — retrieved Oct 2026
  3. 3.Source: IAEA (Report by the Director General; copy hosted by Iran Watch), GOV/2026/50: NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant UNSC resolutions in Iran (1 Sep 2026; derestricted 9 Sep 2026) — retrieved Oct 2026
  4. 4.Source: SIPRI, SIPRI Yearbook 2026 press release: Increasing focus on nuclear weapons amid heightened escalation risks (8 Jun 2026) — retrieved Oct 2026
  5. 5.Source: US Congressional Research Service (Paul K. Kerr; via EveryCRSReport), Iran and Nuclear Weapons Production, In Focus IF12106 (updated 13 Oct 2026) — retrieved Oct 2026
  6. 6.Source: IAEA Director General (copy hosted by Iran Watch), Introductory Statement to the Board of Governors (7 Sep 2026) — retrieved Oct 2026
  7. 7.Source: IAEA, Update on Developments in Iran (5), press release 54/2025 (22 Jun 2025) — retrieved Oct 2026
  8. 8.Source: German Federal Foreign Office (E3 joint statement), Joint Statement by the Foreign Ministers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom on the Initiation of the Snapback Process (28 Aug 2025) — retrieved Oct 2026
  9. 9.Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran (copy hosted by Iran Watch), Statement by the Foreign Ministry of the Islamic Republic of Iran (28 Sep 2025) — retrieved Oct 2026
  10. 10.Source: United Nations, Meetings Coverage and Press Releases, SC/16181: Security Council Fails to Adopt Resolution Extending Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran's Nuclear Programme (26 Sep 2025) — retrieved Oct 2026
  11. 11.Source: Government of the Netherlands, Treaty Database, Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: parties (page modified 2022-10-20) — retrieved Oct 2026
  12. 12.Source: Government of the Netherlands, Treaty Database, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: parties (page modified 2026-07-10) — retrieved Oct 2026

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