Fat Man on Beijing
21 kt fission weapon · China · Population 21,500,000 · Density 1,300/km²
About this scenario
This page calculates what would happen if the Fat Man (USA, 1945) detonated over Beijing (China). Nagasaki bomb.
The capital of the People's Republic of China and one of the most populous cities in the world. With an urban-core density of about 1,300 people per km², even a relatively small detonation over the city center would affect a large population.
The Fat Man delivers 21 kt of explosive yield — comparable in yield to the Hiroshima bomb. The tables below show calculated effect radii for an air burst (optimized for blast spread) and a surface burst (which produces massive fallout).
Air-burst effects (Fat Man over Beijing)
| Effect zone | Radius | Est. affected |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal) | 0.49 km | ~981 |
| Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal) | 1.32 km | ~5,955 |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal) | 2.81 km | ~12,620 |
| Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries) | 8.00 km | ~11,460 |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 2.33 km | — |
| 2nd-degree thermal burns | 4.18 km | — |
Estimated total fatalities: ~19,556 · Estimated total affected (inside 1 PSI light-blast radius): ~261,513.
Surface-burst effects (with fallout)
A surface burst trades blast spread for radioactive fallout — much smaller blast radii but a large lethal fallout plume drifting downwind. This is what would happen if the Fat Man struck ground level rather than detonating optimally above Beijing.
| Effect zone | Radius (surface burst) |
|---|---|
| Fireball | 0.39 km |
| Severe blast (20 PSI) | 0.72 km |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI) | 1.55 km |
| Light blast (1 PSI) | 4.40 km |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 1.40 km |
| Lethal fallout zone | ~40.6 km |
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See the actual blast zones overlaid on a map of Beijing with population-density-based casualty estimates updated in real time as you move the detonation point.
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FAQ
What would happen if the Fat Man detonated over Beijing?
In an air burst over Beijing, the Fat Man (21 kt) would produce a fireball about 0.49 km in radius. The 5 PSI moderate-blast zone — where most residential buildings collapse — would extend to 2.81 km. Light blast damage and shattered windows would reach 8.00 km. Given Beijing's urban density (~1,300/km²), this scenario yields an estimated 19,556 immediate fatalities and about 11,460 additional injured.
How many people would die in Beijing from a Fat Man strike?
An air burst of the Fat Man over Beijing could cause an estimated 19,556 immediate fatalities and 11,460 additional injuries. The fireball alone (radius 0.49 km) would kill approximately 981 people; the severe-blast zone (20 PSI, radius 1.32 km) would add 5,955; the moderate-blast zone (5 PSI, radius 2.81 km) would add 12,620 more. Real numbers depend heavily on time of day, sheltering, weather, and altitude of detonation.
What is the blast radius of the Fat Man on Beijing?
For an air burst over Beijing: fireball 0.49 km, severe blast (20 PSI) 1.32 km, moderate blast (5 PSI) 2.81 km, light blast (1 PSI) 8.00 km. Thermal radiation causes 3rd-degree burns out to 2.33 km. A surface burst would shrink the blast radii by roughly 40 percent but generate massive radioactive fallout extending ~41 km from ground zero.
Is the Fat Man bigger than the bomb that hit Hiroshima?
The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) had a yield of about 15 kilotons. The Fat Man at 21 kt is comparable in yield to the Hiroshima bomb.