W76 on Hong Kong
100 kt thermonuclear weapon · China · Population 7,500,000 · Density 7,100/km²
About this scenario
This page calculates what would happen if the W76 (USA, 1978) detonated over Hong Kong (China). Common SLBM warhead.
A special administrative region of China and one of the world's most densely populated territories. With an urban-core density of about 7,100 people per km², even a relatively small detonation over the city center would affect a large population.
The W76 delivers 100 kt of explosive yield — 7× more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The tables below show calculated effect radii for an air burst (optimized for blast spread) and a surface burst (which produces massive fallout).
Air-burst effects (W76 over Hong Kong)
| Effect zone | Radius | Est. affected |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal) | 0.91 km | ~18,670 |
| Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal) | 2.20 km | ~87,433 |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal) | 4.71 km | ~193,068 |
| Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries) | 13.39 km | ~175,318 |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 4.43 km | — |
| 2nd-degree thermal burns | 7.93 km | — |
Estimated total fatalities: ~299,171 · Estimated total affected (inside 1 PSI light-blast radius): ~4,000,769.
Surface-burst effects (with fallout)
A surface burst trades blast spread for radioactive fallout — much smaller blast radii but a large lethal fallout plume drifting downwind. This is what would happen if the W76 struck ground level rather than detonating optimally above Hong Kong.
| Effect zone | Radius (surface burst) |
|---|---|
| Fireball | 0.73 km |
| Severe blast (20 PSI) | 1.21 km |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI) | 2.59 km |
| Light blast (1 PSI) | 7.37 km |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 2.66 km |
| Lethal fallout zone | ~75.7 km |
Run this scenario in the simulator
See the actual blast zones overlaid on a map of Hong Kong with population-density-based casualty estimates updated in real time as you move the detonation point.
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FAQ
What would happen if the W76 detonated over Hong Kong?
In an air burst over Hong Kong, the W76 (100 kt) would produce a fireball about 0.91 km in radius. The 5 PSI moderate-blast zone — where most residential buildings collapse — would extend to 4.71 km. Light blast damage and shattered windows would reach 13.39 km. Given Hong Kong's urban density (~7,100/km²), this scenario yields an estimated 299,171 immediate fatalities and about 175,318 additional injured.
How many people would die in Hong Kong from a W76 strike?
An air burst of the W76 over Hong Kong could cause an estimated 299,171 immediate fatalities and 175,318 additional injuries. The fireball alone (radius 0.91 km) would kill approximately 18,670 people; the severe-blast zone (20 PSI, radius 2.20 km) would add 87,433; the moderate-blast zone (5 PSI, radius 4.71 km) would add 193,068 more. Real numbers depend heavily on time of day, sheltering, weather, and altitude of detonation.
What is the blast radius of the W76 on Hong Kong?
For an air burst over Hong Kong: fireball 0.91 km, severe blast (20 PSI) 2.20 km, moderate blast (5 PSI) 4.71 km, light blast (1 PSI) 13.39 km. Thermal radiation causes 3rd-degree burns out to 4.43 km. A surface burst would shrink the blast radii by roughly 40 percent but generate massive radioactive fallout extending ~76 km from ground zero.
Is the W76 bigger than the bomb that hit Hiroshima?
The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) had a yield of about 15 kilotons. The W76 at 100 kt is 7× more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.