What if a Nuclear Bomb Hit Amsterdam?

Netherlands · Population 873,000 · Density 5,200/km²

About Amsterdam

The capital of the Netherlands, a major European financial center built around its historic canal system.

Below are four scenario calculations using historical and modern nuclear weapons. Each row shows the radius of an effect zone in kilometers and a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of people inside that zone, derived from the city's urban population density. Numbers are educational approximations — see the methodology page for the underlying formulas.

Little Boy on Amsterdam (15 kt)

USA · 1945 · Hiroshima bomb

Effect zoneRadiusEst. affected
Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal)0.43 km~2,998
Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal)1.18 km~19,219
Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal)2.52 km~40,428
Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries)7.16 km~36,711
3rd-degree thermal burns2.03 km

W76 on Amsterdam (100 kt)

USA · 1978 · Common SLBM warhead

Effect zoneRadiusEst. affected
Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal)0.91 km~13,674
Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal)2.20 km~64,035
Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal)4.71 km~141,402
Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries)13.39 km~128,402
3rd-degree thermal burns4.43 km

Castle Bravo on Amsterdam (15 Mt)

USA · 1954 · Most powerful US nuclear test

Effect zoneRadiusEst. affected
Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal)6.79 km~752,943
Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal)11.51 km~1,368,804
Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal)24.60 km~3,860,787
Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries)69.98 km~3,505,841
3rd-degree thermal burns34.54 km

Tsar Bomba on Amsterdam (50 Mt)

USSR · 1961 · Largest nuclear weapon ever tested

Effect zoneRadiusEst. affected
Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal)10.99 km~1,972,719
Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal)17.13 km~2,723,989
Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal)36.60 km~8,546,253
Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries)104.12 km~7,760,545
3rd-degree thermal burns56.58 km

Limitations

These estimates assume an idealized air burst over the city center, uniform population density, and no advance warning or sheltering. Real-world casualties would depend on:

  • Time of day (population is concentrated downtown during business hours)
  • Sheltering and basements (subway systems can reduce casualties significantly)
  • Building construction (reinforced steel/concrete vs. wood-frame)
  • Weather and atmospheric conditions
  • Detonation altitude (air burst vs. surface burst)
  • Subsequent fallout and infrastructure collapse

Other City Scenarios

FAQ

What would happen if a nuclear bomb hit Amsterdam?

Amsterdam has approximately 873,000 people and an urban density around 5,200 per km². A Hiroshima-yield warhead (15 kt Little Boy) detonated over Amsterdam would produce a moderate blast radius of about 2.5 km, with an estimated 22,217 immediate fatalities in the severe-blast zone. A modern strategic warhead (W76, 100 kt) would extend the moderate-damage zone to roughly 4.7 km with thermal burns reaching 4.4 km. Run the interactive simulator above to see the exact zones overlaid on the map.

How many people would die in Amsterdam from a nuclear strike?

A 100 kt W76 strategic warhead air-burst over Amsterdam could cause an estimated 219,111 immediate fatalities and around 128,402 additional injured. For comparison, a 50 Mt Tsar Bomba — the largest weapon ever tested — would put roughly 177,095,962 people inside the 1 PSI light-blast zone alone. Real casualties depend strongly on time of day, sheltering, weather, and altitude of detonation.

What is the blast radius of a nuclear bomb over Amsterdam?

For a 100 kt strategic warhead over Amsterdam: fireball radius 0.91 km, severe blast (20 PSI) 2.20 km, moderate blast (5 PSI) 4.71 km, light blast (1 PSI) 13.39 km, third-degree thermal burns 4.43 km. Larger yields scale these radii roughly as the cube root of yield for blast and the 0.41 power for thermal effects.

Is Amsterdam a likely nuclear target?

This is an educational simulator and does not assess threat probability. Amsterdam is one of the world's most prominent cities in Europe, which is why we feature it as a scenario. The purpose of these visualizations is to convey the humanitarian scale of nuclear weapons — not to make any operational claim.

See also: full Weapons Database (45+ entries) · Scientific methodology · Data sources.