Fat Man on Shanghai
21 kt fission weapon · China · Population 24,870,000 · Density 3,900/km²
About this scenario
This page calculates what would happen if the Fat Man (USA, 1945) detonated over Shanghai (China). Nagasaki bomb.
China's largest city by population and one of the world's busiest container ports. With an urban-core density of about 3,900 people per km², even a relatively small detonation over the city center would affect a large population.
The Fat Man delivers 21 kt of explosive yield — comparable in yield to the Hiroshima bomb. The tables below show calculated effect radii for an air burst (optimized for blast spread) and a surface burst (which produces massive fallout).
Air-burst effects (Fat Man over Shanghai)
| Effect zone | Radius | Est. affected |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal) | 0.49 km | ~2,943 |
| Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal) | 1.32 km | ~17,864 |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal) | 2.81 km | ~37,860 |
| Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries) | 8.00 km | ~34,379 |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 2.33 km | — |
| 2nd-degree thermal burns | 4.18 km | — |
Estimated total fatalities: ~58,667 · Estimated total affected (inside 1 PSI light-blast radius): ~784,539.
Surface-burst effects (with fallout)
A surface burst trades blast spread for radioactive fallout — much smaller blast radii but a large lethal fallout plume drifting downwind. This is what would happen if the Fat Man struck ground level rather than detonating optimally above Shanghai.
| Effect zone | Radius (surface burst) |
|---|---|
| Fireball | 0.39 km |
| Severe blast (20 PSI) | 0.72 km |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI) | 1.55 km |
| Light blast (1 PSI) | 4.40 km |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 1.40 km |
| Lethal fallout zone | ~40.6 km |
Run this scenario in the simulator
See the actual blast zones overlaid on a map of Shanghai with population-density-based casualty estimates updated in real time as you move the detonation point.
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FAQ
What would happen if the Fat Man detonated over Shanghai?
In an air burst over Shanghai, the Fat Man (21 kt) would produce a fireball about 0.49 km in radius. The 5 PSI moderate-blast zone — where most residential buildings collapse — would extend to 2.81 km. Light blast damage and shattered windows would reach 8.00 km. Given Shanghai's urban density (~3,900/km²), this scenario yields an estimated 58,667 immediate fatalities and about 34,379 additional injured.
How many people would die in Shanghai from a Fat Man strike?
An air burst of the Fat Man over Shanghai could cause an estimated 58,667 immediate fatalities and 34,379 additional injuries. The fireball alone (radius 0.49 km) would kill approximately 2,943 people; the severe-blast zone (20 PSI, radius 1.32 km) would add 17,864; the moderate-blast zone (5 PSI, radius 2.81 km) would add 37,860 more. Real numbers depend heavily on time of day, sheltering, weather, and altitude of detonation.
What is the blast radius of the Fat Man on Shanghai?
For an air burst over Shanghai: fireball 0.49 km, severe blast (20 PSI) 1.32 km, moderate blast (5 PSI) 2.81 km, light blast (1 PSI) 8.00 km. Thermal radiation causes 3rd-degree burns out to 2.33 km. A surface burst would shrink the blast radii by roughly 40 percent but generate massive radioactive fallout extending ~41 km from ground zero.
Is the Fat Man bigger than the bomb that hit Hiroshima?
The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) had a yield of about 15 kilotons. The Fat Man at 21 kt is comparable in yield to the Hiroshima bomb.