Fat Man on Sydney
21 kt fission weapon · Australia · Population 5,312,000 · Density 2,100/km²
About this scenario
This page calculates what would happen if the Fat Man (USA, 1945) detonated over Sydney (Australia). Nagasaki bomb.
The largest city in Australia and host of the 2000 Summer Olympics. With an urban-core density of about 2,100 people per km², even a relatively small detonation over the city center would affect a large population.
The Fat Man delivers 21 kt of explosive yield — comparable in yield to the Hiroshima bomb. The tables below show calculated effect radii for an air burst (optimized for blast spread) and a surface burst (which produces massive fallout).
Air-burst effects (Fat Man over Sydney)
| Effect zone | Radius | Est. affected |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal) | 0.49 km | ~1,584 |
| Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal) | 1.32 km | ~9,620 |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal) | 2.81 km | ~20,386 |
| Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries) | 8.00 km | ~18,512 |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 2.33 km | — |
| 2nd-degree thermal burns | 4.18 km | — |
Estimated total fatalities: ~31,590 · Estimated total affected (inside 1 PSI light-blast radius): ~422,444.
Surface-burst effects (with fallout)
A surface burst trades blast spread for radioactive fallout — much smaller blast radii but a large lethal fallout plume drifting downwind. This is what would happen if the Fat Man struck ground level rather than detonating optimally above Sydney.
| Effect zone | Radius (surface burst) |
|---|---|
| Fireball | 0.39 km |
| Severe blast (20 PSI) | 0.72 km |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI) | 1.55 km |
| Light blast (1 PSI) | 4.40 km |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 1.40 km |
| Lethal fallout zone | ~40.6 km |
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See the actual blast zones overlaid on a map of Sydney with population-density-based casualty estimates updated in real time as you move the detonation point.
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FAQ
What would happen if the Fat Man detonated over Sydney?
In an air burst over Sydney, the Fat Man (21 kt) would produce a fireball about 0.49 km in radius. The 5 PSI moderate-blast zone — where most residential buildings collapse — would extend to 2.81 km. Light blast damage and shattered windows would reach 8.00 km. Given Sydney's urban density (~2,100/km²), this scenario yields an estimated 31,590 immediate fatalities and about 18,512 additional injured.
How many people would die in Sydney from a Fat Man strike?
An air burst of the Fat Man over Sydney could cause an estimated 31,590 immediate fatalities and 18,512 additional injuries. The fireball alone (radius 0.49 km) would kill approximately 1,584 people; the severe-blast zone (20 PSI, radius 1.32 km) would add 9,620; the moderate-blast zone (5 PSI, radius 2.81 km) would add 20,386 more. Real numbers depend heavily on time of day, sheltering, weather, and altitude of detonation.
What is the blast radius of the Fat Man on Sydney?
For an air burst over Sydney: fireball 0.49 km, severe blast (20 PSI) 1.32 km, moderate blast (5 PSI) 2.81 km, light blast (1 PSI) 8.00 km. Thermal radiation causes 3rd-degree burns out to 2.33 km. A surface burst would shrink the blast radii by roughly 40 percent but generate massive radioactive fallout extending ~41 km from ground zero.
Is the Fat Man bigger than the bomb that hit Hiroshima?
The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) had a yield of about 15 kilotons. The Fat Man at 21 kt is comparable in yield to the Hiroshima bomb.