W76 on Shanghai
100 kt thermonuclear weapon · China · Population 24,870,000 · Density 3,900/km²
About this scenario
This page calculates what would happen if the W76 (USA, 1978) detonated over Shanghai (China). Common SLBM warhead.
China's largest city by population and one of the world's busiest container ports. With an urban-core density of about 3,900 people per km², even a relatively small detonation over the city center would affect a large population.
The W76 delivers 100 kt of explosive yield — 7× more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The tables below show calculated effect radii for an air burst (optimized for blast spread) and a surface burst (which produces massive fallout).
Air-burst effects (W76 over Shanghai)
| Effect zone | Radius | Est. affected |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal) | 0.91 km | ~10,255 |
| Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal) | 2.20 km | ~48,027 |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal) | 4.71 km | ~106,051 |
| Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries) | 13.39 km | ~96,301 |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 4.43 km | — |
| 2nd-degree thermal burns | 7.93 km | — |
Estimated total fatalities: ~164,333 · Estimated total affected (inside 1 PSI light-blast radius): ~2,197,605.
Surface-burst effects (with fallout)
A surface burst trades blast spread for radioactive fallout — much smaller blast radii but a large lethal fallout plume drifting downwind. This is what would happen if the W76 struck ground level rather than detonating optimally above Shanghai.
| Effect zone | Radius (surface burst) |
|---|---|
| Fireball | 0.73 km |
| Severe blast (20 PSI) | 1.21 km |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI) | 2.59 km |
| Light blast (1 PSI) | 7.37 km |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 2.66 km |
| Lethal fallout zone | ~75.7 km |
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See the actual blast zones overlaid on a map of Shanghai with population-density-based casualty estimates updated in real time as you move the detonation point.
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FAQ
What would happen if the W76 detonated over Shanghai?
In an air burst over Shanghai, the W76 (100 kt) would produce a fireball about 0.91 km in radius. The 5 PSI moderate-blast zone — where most residential buildings collapse — would extend to 4.71 km. Light blast damage and shattered windows would reach 13.39 km. Given Shanghai's urban density (~3,900/km²), this scenario yields an estimated 164,333 immediate fatalities and about 96,301 additional injured.
How many people would die in Shanghai from a W76 strike?
An air burst of the W76 over Shanghai could cause an estimated 164,333 immediate fatalities and 96,301 additional injuries. The fireball alone (radius 0.91 km) would kill approximately 10,255 people; the severe-blast zone (20 PSI, radius 2.20 km) would add 48,027; the moderate-blast zone (5 PSI, radius 4.71 km) would add 106,051 more. Real numbers depend heavily on time of day, sheltering, weather, and altitude of detonation.
What is the blast radius of the W76 on Shanghai?
For an air burst over Shanghai: fireball 0.91 km, severe blast (20 PSI) 2.20 km, moderate blast (5 PSI) 4.71 km, light blast (1 PSI) 13.39 km. Thermal radiation causes 3rd-degree burns out to 4.43 km. A surface burst would shrink the blast radii by roughly 40 percent but generate massive radioactive fallout extending ~76 km from ground zero.
Is the W76 bigger than the bomb that hit Hiroshima?
The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) had a yield of about 15 kilotons. The W76 at 100 kt is 7× more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.