W88 on Istanbul
475 kt thermonuclear weapon · Turkey · Population 15,460,000 · Density 2,900/km²
About this scenario
This page calculates what would happen if the W88 (USA, 1988) detonated over Istanbul (Turkey). Modern SLBM warhead.
The largest city in Turkey and Europe's largest metropolitan area, straddling the Bosporus strait. With an urban-core density of about 2,900 people per km², even a relatively small detonation over the city center would affect a large population.
The W88 delivers 475 kt of explosive yield — 32× more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The tables below show calculated effect radii for an air burst (optimized for blast spread) and a surface burst (which produces massive fallout).
Air-burst effects (W88 over Istanbul)
| Effect zone | Radius | Est. affected |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal) | 1.71 km | ~26,524 |
| Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal) | 3.68 km | ~94,671 |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal) | 7.87 km | ~220,531 |
| Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries) | 22.40 km | ~200,256 |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 8.39 km | — |
| 2nd-degree thermal burns | 15.02 km | — |
Estimated total fatalities: ~341,726 · Estimated total affected (inside 1 PSI light-blast radius): ~4,569,839.
Surface-burst effects (with fallout)
A surface burst trades blast spread for radioactive fallout — much smaller blast radii but a large lethal fallout plume drifting downwind. This is what would happen if the W88 struck ground level rather than detonating optimally above Istanbul.
| Effect zone | Radius (surface burst) |
|---|---|
| Fireball | 1.37 km |
| Severe blast (20 PSI) | 2.03 km |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI) | 4.33 km |
| Light blast (1 PSI) | 12.32 km |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 5.03 km |
| Lethal fallout zone | ~141.2 km |
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See the actual blast zones overlaid on a map of Istanbul with population-density-based casualty estimates updated in real time as you move the detonation point.
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FAQ
What would happen if the W88 detonated over Istanbul?
In an air burst over Istanbul, the W88 (475 kt) would produce a fireball about 1.71 km in radius. The 5 PSI moderate-blast zone — where most residential buildings collapse — would extend to 7.87 km. Light blast damage and shattered windows would reach 22.40 km. Given Istanbul's urban density (~2,900/km²), this scenario yields an estimated 341,726 immediate fatalities and about 200,256 additional injured.
How many people would die in Istanbul from a W88 strike?
An air burst of the W88 over Istanbul could cause an estimated 341,726 immediate fatalities and 200,256 additional injuries. The fireball alone (radius 1.71 km) would kill approximately 26,524 people; the severe-blast zone (20 PSI, radius 3.68 km) would add 94,671; the moderate-blast zone (5 PSI, radius 7.87 km) would add 220,531 more. Real numbers depend heavily on time of day, sheltering, weather, and altitude of detonation.
What is the blast radius of the W88 on Istanbul?
For an air burst over Istanbul: fireball 1.71 km, severe blast (20 PSI) 3.68 km, moderate blast (5 PSI) 7.87 km, light blast (1 PSI) 22.40 km. Thermal radiation causes 3rd-degree burns out to 8.39 km. A surface burst would shrink the blast radii by roughly 40 percent but generate massive radioactive fallout extending ~141 km from ground zero.
Is the W88 bigger than the bomb that hit Hiroshima?
The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) had a yield of about 15 kilotons. The W88 at 475 kt is 32× more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.