W88 on Sydney

475 kt thermonuclear weapon · Australia · Population 5,312,000 · Density 2,100/km²

About this scenario

This page calculates what would happen if the W88 (USA, 1988) detonated over Sydney (Australia). Modern SLBM warhead.

The largest city in Australia and host of the 2000 Summer Olympics. With an urban-core density of about 2,100 people per km², even a relatively small detonation over the city center would affect a large population.

The W88 delivers 475 kt of explosive yield — 32× more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The tables below show calculated effect radii for an air burst (optimized for blast spread) and a surface burst (which produces massive fallout).

Air-burst effects (W88 over Sydney)

Effect zoneRadiusEst. affected
Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal)1.71 km~19,207
Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal)3.68 km~68,555
Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal)7.87 km~159,694
Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries)22.40 km~145,013
3rd-degree thermal burns8.39 km
2nd-degree thermal burns15.02 km

Estimated total fatalities: ~247,456 · Estimated total affected (inside 1 PSI light-blast radius): ~3,309,194.

Surface-burst effects (with fallout)

A surface burst trades blast spread for radioactive fallout — much smaller blast radii but a large lethal fallout plume drifting downwind. This is what would happen if the W88 struck ground level rather than detonating optimally above Sydney.

Effect zoneRadius (surface burst)
Fireball1.37 km
Severe blast (20 PSI)2.03 km
Moderate blast (5 PSI)4.33 km
Light blast (1 PSI)12.32 km
3rd-degree thermal burns5.03 km
Lethal fallout zone~141.2 km

Run this scenario in the simulator

See the actual blast zones overlaid on a map of Sydney with population-density-based casualty estimates updated in real time as you move the detonation point.

🎯 Open this scenario on the map

W88 on other cities

Other weapons on Sydney

FAQ

What would happen if the W88 detonated over Sydney?

In an air burst over Sydney, the W88 (475 kt) would produce a fireball about 1.71 km in radius. The 5 PSI moderate-blast zone — where most residential buildings collapse — would extend to 7.87 km. Light blast damage and shattered windows would reach 22.40 km. Given Sydney's urban density (~2,100/km²), this scenario yields an estimated 247,456 immediate fatalities and about 145,013 additional injured.

How many people would die in Sydney from a W88 strike?

An air burst of the W88 over Sydney could cause an estimated 247,456 immediate fatalities and 145,013 additional injuries. The fireball alone (radius 1.71 km) would kill approximately 19,207 people; the severe-blast zone (20 PSI, radius 3.68 km) would add 68,555; the moderate-blast zone (5 PSI, radius 7.87 km) would add 159,694 more. Real numbers depend heavily on time of day, sheltering, weather, and altitude of detonation.

What is the blast radius of the W88 on Sydney?

For an air burst over Sydney: fireball 1.71 km, severe blast (20 PSI) 3.68 km, moderate blast (5 PSI) 7.87 km, light blast (1 PSI) 22.40 km. Thermal radiation causes 3rd-degree burns out to 8.39 km. A surface burst would shrink the blast radii by roughly 40 percent but generate massive radioactive fallout extending ~141 km from ground zero.

Is the W88 bigger than the bomb that hit Hiroshima?

The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) had a yield of about 15 kilotons. The W88 at 475 kt is 32× more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.

Casualty math uses Sydney's urban-core density and the scaling laws on the methodology page. See W88 weapon details, the Sydney scenario overview, or browse all scenarios.