W88 on São Paulo
475 kt thermonuclear weapon · Brazil · Population 12,330,000 · Density 7,400/km²
About this scenario
This page calculates what would happen if the W88 (USA, 1988) detonated over São Paulo (Brazil). Modern SLBM warhead.
The largest city in the southern hemisphere and Brazil's economic capital, with over 22 million in the metro area. With an urban-core density of about 7,400 people per km², even a relatively small detonation over the city center would affect a large population.
The W88 delivers 475 kt of explosive yield — 32× more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The tables below show calculated effect radii for an air burst (optimized for blast spread) and a surface burst (which produces massive fallout).
Air-burst effects (W88 over São Paulo)
| Effect zone | Radius | Est. affected |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball (vaporization, 100% fatal) | 1.71 km | ~67,682 |
| Severe blast (20 PSI, ~98% fatal) | 3.68 km | ~241,575 |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI, ~50% fatal) | 7.87 km | ~562,732 |
| Light blast (1 PSI, glass injuries) | 22.40 km | ~510,996 |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 8.39 km | — |
| 2nd-degree thermal burns | 15.02 km | — |
Estimated total fatalities: ~871,989 · Estimated total affected (inside 1 PSI light-blast radius): ~11,660,968.
Surface-burst effects (with fallout)
A surface burst trades blast spread for radioactive fallout — much smaller blast radii but a large lethal fallout plume drifting downwind. This is what would happen if the W88 struck ground level rather than detonating optimally above São Paulo.
| Effect zone | Radius (surface burst) |
|---|---|
| Fireball | 1.37 km |
| Severe blast (20 PSI) | 2.03 km |
| Moderate blast (5 PSI) | 4.33 km |
| Light blast (1 PSI) | 12.32 km |
| 3rd-degree thermal burns | 5.03 km |
| Lethal fallout zone | ~141.2 km |
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See the actual blast zones overlaid on a map of São Paulo with population-density-based casualty estimates updated in real time as you move the detonation point.
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FAQ
What would happen if the W88 detonated over São Paulo?
In an air burst over São Paulo, the W88 (475 kt) would produce a fireball about 1.71 km in radius. The 5 PSI moderate-blast zone — where most residential buildings collapse — would extend to 7.87 km. Light blast damage and shattered windows would reach 22.40 km. Given São Paulo's urban density (~7,400/km²), this scenario yields an estimated 871,989 immediate fatalities and about 510,996 additional injured.
How many people would die in São Paulo from a W88 strike?
An air burst of the W88 over São Paulo could cause an estimated 871,989 immediate fatalities and 510,996 additional injuries. The fireball alone (radius 1.71 km) would kill approximately 67,682 people; the severe-blast zone (20 PSI, radius 3.68 km) would add 241,575; the moderate-blast zone (5 PSI, radius 7.87 km) would add 562,732 more. Real numbers depend heavily on time of day, sheltering, weather, and altitude of detonation.
What is the blast radius of the W88 on São Paulo?
For an air burst over São Paulo: fireball 1.71 km, severe blast (20 PSI) 3.68 km, moderate blast (5 PSI) 7.87 km, light blast (1 PSI) 22.40 km. Thermal radiation causes 3rd-degree burns out to 8.39 km. A surface burst would shrink the blast radii by roughly 40 percent but generate massive radioactive fallout extending ~141 km from ground zero.
Is the W88 bigger than the bomb that hit Hiroshima?
The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) had a yield of about 15 kilotons. The W88 at 475 kt is 32× more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.